If these estimates are true, there is a fundamental question for society: Will the economy be able to create new jobs fast enough to compensate for the loss of jobs due to AI. Economic history has shown that western capitalist societies have always created new jobs in the face of rapid technological change.
But what if this time is different?
The goal of Economic-evolution AI blog is to watch the progress of AI and help interpret what future scenarios are more and less likely to unfold. We want to help develop an informed understanding whether the AI optimists or pessimists are more likely to be correct.
Among the optimists are many economist historians such as Joel Mokyr (Interview) or Caspar Hirschi (Interview in German) who take the position that there is nothing to worry about. Societies will not have to change radically.
The pessimists fear that AI will destroy jobs and unprecedented magnitude and speed. If the rate of job destruction is going to be far larger the rate of new job creation, then we will have to radically redesign society because jobs will no longer provide the money to pay livelihood of most people as is the case today. Aija Leiponen is an example of the pessimistic voices.
Our goal is to watch very closely the evidence and help everyone make up their minds how optimistic or pessimistic we should be. And if society needs to be redesigned, we better start thinking and experimenting with new forms of supporting the livelihood of all members of society without relying mainly on paid jobs.